Article Review : "Human Security and the Disaffected of Central Asia"
Judul Artikel : Human Security and the Disaffected of Central Asia
Pengarang : John Glenn
Tahun Terbit : 2003
Penerbit : SAGE Publications
Tebal : 453-469
This article “Human Security and the Disaffected of Central Asia” is tell the story about Central Asia has witnessed a precipitous decline in the population’s welfare. And this article argues that in order to ensure stability within the region, the human security of the peoples of Central Asia must be improved. To achieve such an outcome, it is argued that a Marshall Plan for contemporary times is required.
After 10 years of transition the Central Asian states (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan) continue to be confronted by similar security problems to those faced by other ‘developing’ states. The inability of these states to provide basic welfare has led to widespread disillusionment among the population, in some cases leading to a crisis of legitimacy for their governments. Such crises have in some cases developed into full-blown civil war or have generated insurgency movements. In 1992, Tajikistan descended into a five-year civil war and the past few years have witnessed the birth of several insurgency movements operating within the Central Asian region: the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), Hizb ut-Tahrir al-lslami (Islamic Liberation Party), and a splinter group from this movement, Akramiyya.
There is two other points need to be considered. First, much of the economy of Central Asia is based on the production of primary products, the prices and yields of which can be quite volatile and the economic performances of these economies fluctuate accordingly. In addition, the worsening terms of trade for primary products looks set to continue. The possible exception is oil, which is unique because of OPEC’s influence, although until recently the price of this commodity had also declined considerably. In the past decade, Central Asia has experienced significant declines in the prices of gold, cotton, cereals, and other primary products. The second long-term problem confronting these states is the age structure of their societies which ‘exhibit the classic pyramid-shaped age structure - typical of “young” developing countries’. Although the birth rate has slowed in recent years, the increasing number of young adults seeking work presents a major problem for the authorities. Even if the GDPs for Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are a true reflection of economic performance, therefore, far greater increases in economic activity are required if they are effectively to absorb the burgeoning labour surpluses.
There are two main reasons why such instability exists within Central Asia. First, although each of the states within the Central Asia region has held multiparty elections so that we can speak of some sort of formal democracy having been established, substantive, democracy within these states is either absent or falls short of the mark. Second, these governments lack a sufficient degree of ‘output legitimacy’, that is, legitimacy derived from promoting ‘the welfare of the constituency in question’. This support is further diminished by the fact that the current economic system does not compare favourably with the previous command economy.
These two aspects are inextricably tied to each other, so that it is difficult to foresee how these countries can undergo a successful transition to democracy in the absence of minimum levels of welfare provision. Support for a more welfare-oriented, alternative political system is a real possibility. In the case of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan, this may lead to the development of less democratic political systems. The economic benefits that derived from the Soviet system may generate a desire to return to a more predictable economic and political system, albeit not necessarily of the communist variety. These three forms of social unrest differ in both their intensity and their potential for developing into large-scale instabilities. But it is clear that if one seeks stability within the region, one must bring the disaffected back in to the political and economic life of the Central Asian states.
To improve the human security of the Central Asian population, at least in the short term, it is suggested that two major policies should be pursued. Both of these policies apply not only to Central Asia, but also to many other 'Third World' states confronting similar conditions to those outlined above. First, the policies of the international financial institutions and the trading practices between these states and the industrialized countries should return to the principles of ‘embedded liberalism’ that guided the post-Second World War international economy for three decades. A combination of international monetary and trade regimes, the welfare state, a mixed economy of public and private ownership, plus Keynesian demand management served to control and ameliorate the worst excesses of capitalism. Second, the debt of these countries should be substantially reduced and at the same time welfare provision by the state should be raised as a result of this debt relief.
Aid to some of the countries in the region has increased quite substantially since 9/11. First, the main recipients are those countries that are seen as strategically the most important in the fight against terrorism. This is to be expected. Second, this aid is divided into several initiatives: democracy programmes; market reform; security programmes; humanitarian assistance; and cross-sectoral initiatives.
This article began by arguing that the Central Asian states lack a significant degree of ‘output legitimacy’, resulting in the disaffection of large proportions of the population. The first section detailed the impact that the economic decline of the past 10 years has had upon the Central Asian population. Of course, the number of people in poverty varied according to the form of measurement, but it is clear that in just one decade there has been a massive increase in poverty across the region. By adopting a human security approach to Central Asia it may be possible to ‘prevent conflict and war and to maintain the integrity of the planet’s life-support systems by eliminating the economic, social, environmental, political, and military conditions that generate threats to the security of people and the planet’. Priority must therefore be given to welfare provision. By improving the human security of the population a greater degree of stability and security will be obtained.